GW Coronavirus Thread - Ongoing Discussions and Info

David Trammel's picture

Given the concern around the Coronavirus outbreak ongoing in China and with its spread beyond their borders, I thought I would provide a place for discussions and information. Feel free to post here.

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Good primer on basic information here: Post Prosperity dot com. Check the comments for more info.
(Note: about half way down there's a ad which will darken the page. Just scroll past to get back to the article.)

At this moment, I have very little worries, even living in a large city. Until I see a case here in St Louis, I'm going to go about my life as I normally would.

I do expect to see a first wave of panic buying. N95 masks, seem to be selling out online. Haven't looked at Home Depot yet. I still have 6 unopened boxes of them from the early 2000 SARs outbreak. I will continue to keep my eyes on the news though.

ClareBroommaker's picture

If one would plan to use elderberry juice as so many comments at peakprosperity recommend, I encourage making and canning it ahead of time. In our household we keep dry elderberries on hand, but have used them only three times that I can think of. (Previously we'd bought a commercially bottled elderberry preparation.)

The last time I boiled the berries, I had two jars full. We used one jar, but just kept the second in the refrigerator. A few weeks later, I noticed it had spoiled. I think I should sterile can some so that it will be there when we need it, even if we would not have the strength to make it due to being sick.

Blueberry's picture

Time to take a trip to the local Package Store pick up some ETOH of your choice ( Some good stuff is made in Poland) to mix with the elderberry juice. Check out this place for stuff for your goldfish. https://www.thomaslabs.com/category/antibiotics. What if. https://www.drugs.com/dosage/amoxicillin.html#Usual_Adult_Dose_for_Pneum...

David Trammel's picture

One commentator recommended pouring your juice in ice cube trays. This would preserve it and store it in easily thawed servings. I could see this as an option for other medicinal herbal juices.

ClareBroommaker's picture

Preserving it in alcohol sounds like it would work. I'll read about that. In the meantime I did did can three pints and a half pints. Had just a tiny bit left over which I highly diluted and drank as a "tea". Tasted good. :)

(Anyone out there with a spot of occasionally wet land could look into growing elderberries for market. I buy elderberries because, in the few places I can collect them, I have been unsuccessful competing with birds. What I bought is imported and I'd rather buy from my own continent, if not own county.)

David Trammel's picture

I'm in the process of taking bids for the concrete pad and apron for my backyard workshop/garden shed. I've decided to get that in first thing, so concrete in February and shed built in early March. I plan on putting a greenhouse on the South side of the shed. Perhaps a good use for it would be to grow herbs. If elderberry is poached by birds then having it in a greenhouse, with glass panels that could be replaced by screens, might make sense.

ClareBroommaker's picture

Probably too big for an ordinary home greenhouse. It grows 8-14 feet tall and more or less six feet in diameter at the base, but it is one of those shrubs that spreads at the base, so to keep it from spreading more you have to cut some of the growth on the margins. My grandmother used to cut ours down to the ground every couple of years.

David Trammel's picture

I wonder if you could cultivate it as a dwarf variety with sharp pruning? Much like a bonsai tree. I would probably plant it in a container so as to keep the soil very moist. If you pruned it aggressively would it still flower and put out berries?

Blueberry's picture

Some info on making a Elderberry Tincture https://www.thespruce.com/instructions-for-elderberry-tincture-3016657 Herbal Tincture info https://www.wikihow.com/Make-an-Herbal-Tincture Some more info on Herbal Tincture https://theherbalacademy.com/how-to-make-a-tincture/ I like to make a tea from Rosemary and Honey. Pine needle tea is very good for a cold, love the stuff.

ClareBroommaker's picture

My spouse and I have a standing agreement that if influenza hits the schools of kids I tutor that I will not work with those kids until the contagion is passed. One family perennially allowed their grade school kids to decide whether or not to get vaccinated (offered free right at the school.) Those kids were constantly passing me their colds and, of course they chose not to get vaccinated for flu.

Definitely, if any other highly communicable serious disease, coronavirus or other, hits the area, I will curtail my work.

I just got back from tutoring this evening, and the kid told me 80 students were sick at her school today. I doubt there are more than 250 students at the school. She did not know if there was one particular illness going around, but it is just a reminder that I might not be able to initiate a pause in tutoring before it is too late to protect myself.

Blueberry's picture

I would vote for life. Mrs B and I will be looking at Feb 4-10 as a time frame for making a choice of locking the gate.

David Trammel's picture

Feb 4-10 is probably too short a time period to make decisions. Typical sub-pandemic outbreaks come in several waves over 4-6 months, as people get it and either die or recover. People who recover are typically immune going forward unless unexpected mutations happen.

My red line at the moment is a confirmed case in my general area (St Louis). Till then I'm not that worried. I will continue to increase my preparations and add to my stores of food and other supplies.

One worry I do have is the reports that this virus does not cause fevers until it you are really sick. Up until then you are still contagious though and can spread it via coughs or sneezes (airborne water droplets). The lack of a fever means that you can't spot it with the infrared cameras that were used to screen arriving travelers with the SARs outbreak in 2003.

A friend who is a nurse said she's more worried about this year's flu. Its looking like its a two strain season.

Though if the current panic about the Corona virus gets people to take simple precautions like washing their hands and using hand sanitizer, then that will cut down on the flu as well.

David Trammel's picture

Though a big difference in price. Surgical masks tend to be in the pennies range, while N95 masks run around a dollar.

Surgical masks as good as respirators for flu and respiratory virus protection

"It was a huge and important study—the largest ever done on this issue in North America," Dr. Perl said.

In the end, 207 laboratory-confirmed influenza infections occurred in the N95 groups versus 193 among medical mask wearers, according to the report. In addition, there were 2,734 cases of influenza-like symptoms, laboratory-confirmed respiratory illnesses, and acute or laboratory-detected respiratory infections (where the worker may not have felt ill) in the N95 groups, compared with 3,039 such events among medical mask wearers.

"The takeaway is that this study shows one type of protective equipment is not superior to the other," she said. "Facilities have several options to provide protection to their staff—which include surgical masks—and can feel that staff are protected from seasonal influenza. Our study supports that in the outpatient setting there was no difference between the tested protections."

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I should note that wearing a mask is more useful to prevent your infected water droplets from spreading than you catching an infection from others. The biggest way you get infected is to get the virus on your hands from a contaminated surface like a door handle, and then rubbing your eyes or nose.

A good habit to get into now is to learn not to touch your face with your hands unless you have sanitized them. That's why rubber gloves provide a false sense of protection. You think you won't get it on your skin but then do something stupid like scratch your nose or face with them on.

Also adopt a habit of using just one hand to touch surfaces and saving the other one to adjust your glasses or such. You could practice now while its safe by wearing a large bandage on one hand to remind you which one is unsafe. No one would question you if you had a bandage across the back of your hand. Just say you cut yourself.

David Trammel's picture

One thing to consider going forward, is that even if the Corona virus does not morph into a world wide pandemic, it is already beginning to impact global economics. China, the world's second largest economy is for all purposes shut down for business. While the Stock Market is still trading at all time highs, the profit outlook on most global and national sized businesses is going to take a serious hit next quarter. And supply chains of products originating from China will soon begin to experience shortages.

This has the possibility to cause recessionary pressures just before the American election.

Also remember that many of the pharmaceutical products American health care uses come out of China. If you rely on a medicine for your daily health, now might be the time to ask your doctor to prescribe addition supplies.

Here is a picture of the Chinese city of Shanghai at the moment

add photo: 
David Trammel's picture

I've been using the Peak Prosperity site as a prime source of news. Recently in this thread

Coronavirus Update: The Calm Before The Storm

a difference of opinion developed in the comments. Chris the PP author of the post and Andy, who I believe said he was a ER nurse have been arguing whether it is better to take the position that things could be very bad, or where such talk simply encourages "fear and panic".

Its been summed up as the difference between fearing the unknown and respecting the unknown.

If you can see just how bad it could get, does this cause you to make unwise decisions (panic) or no make any decisions at all (fear). Or does being informed as to just how bad it could get, make you respect the danger and make prudent decisions on preparations and contingencies?

I certainly am watching the situation closely, and yet I'm still living my life pretty normally. I have looked at where my emergency preparation has slacked off and lacks but I'm not running up my credit card balance buying N95 masks online at outrageous prices, or filling my grocery cart with tons of food and water.

I think we all should do the same.

Blueberry's picture
David Trammel's picture

I expect that tomorrow the US Senate will NOT vote to allow witnesses and move quickly to vote to acquit Trump before the scheduled Feb 3rd State of the Union address.

Allowing for a few days of talking head BS from both sides of the political spectrum, I predict the Main Stream Media will immediately pivot head first into the nCov news. Unfortunately the MSM makes their money on hype and sensationalism. It sells ad space.

Beware the spin from both Right and Left, as well as the Establishment push to marginalize the concerns of regular people, to keep the stock market and the financial industries humming right along making money for the 1%. That's not to say this isn't worrisome. It is, but don't let it panic you into unwise actions.

Even worst case, we all have a cushion of time in which to evaluate our personal options, check our preparedness and take prudent actions.

Follow the news but don't let it take over your day.

lathechuck's picture

Does anyone have a design or pattern for a DIY face mask? It seems like it could be a fairly simple thing to sew, maybe a few layers of fuzzy flannel, but I don't know how to KNOW that it would actually work.
I saw a photo yesterday of Chinese nurses allegedly fabricating (so to speak) masks for their own use.
After Home Depot was sold out of N95 masks, my wife found a box of Curad brand "germ masks" at a local pharmacy.

lathechuck's picture

My (brilliant) wife points out that a mask which wraps around your face may trap virus particles right at the point of entry: mouth and nose, where they have plenty of chances to be absorbed and cause infection. A useful mask must thus maintain a safe air pocket (as the N95 masks do) over the nose and mouth. I have no idea how to build that!

lathechuck's picture

Everyone goes to the grocery store (the healthy, the caregivers, and the sick who have no helpers), and we aren't ready to pull up the drawbridge just yet (no cases in the Washington DC area), but I've found that if I'm in the grocery store at 6:15 AM (it opens at 6:00), there's no one else there but the floor scrubber, the shelf-stockers, and one check-out clerk. The store offers sanitizing wipes at the door, and I use them to wipe down the shopping cart handle.

I wonder whether deli-prepared foods might be a mode of infection. I suppose (without evidence) that a moist slice of meat or cheese would be a more hospitable environment for a virus than the wrapper of a soup can.

For storage of canned goods, I put shelves in the basement between 2x4 wall studs that were only paneled on one side of the wall. Earthquakes being exceedingly rare in this area, I can double-up two layers of cans between each shelf, and put shelves from floor to ceiling. Glass containers go on the floor. Every non-perishable food container that comes into the house gets a highly-visible year/month purchase-date code, so we know which items to eat first (without sorting through the fine-print put on by the manufacturer).

mountainmoma's picture

We had a local hepatitis outbreak that was from a deli worker, so, yes, that would also be risky for this virus

ClareBroommaker's picture

To avoid crowds, USAmericans can shop Superbowl Sunday. My spouse and I have gone to one of those huge box stores several years in a row on Superbowl Sunday, and found few people in the store. However, you must be prepared to walk by the enormous displays of chips, soft drinks, beer, #10 cans of nacho cheese and sliced jalepenos, disposable eating utensils, and so forth.

(Someday I might figure out where a reply made in these forums will land. This one is meant to be under, "Precautions - shop early, stock up gradually".)

ADMIN: Moved this comment to where Clare wanted it.

David Trammel's picture

Click any "reply" under a comment and it will show up under that comment. Clicking on the first comment, that has other comments to it, will put your reply at the top of the comments (of that comment). Hope that helps.

David Trammel's picture

The counter people don't change their disposable gloves between customers, though if they have to do something like ring out your order on the cash register they do. They also lay the product on disposable wax paper. Still they aren't using anywhere the biological separation that would be needed in this kind of crisis.

Meat cutters and sea food workers too I'm afraid.

mountainmoma's picture

Last week, during the 3 day outage, I went to a Deli in the local natural foods store. One of the women working there wore glasses, and she kept taking them on and off while making sandwiches, using her gloved hands on, to look at the description of specials on the wall, off to go in her pocket. The last straw while I was watching is she took them off and held them by one of the arms in her mouth, then put them back on, all wearing gloves, while assembling a sandwich. I went and found the manager ( who I know) to let her know of the public health risk.

lathechuck's picture

Johns-Hopkins University frequently updates the web-site map for which the link was provided above, and that's where I've been getting some numbers. As of 7 PM EST, Jan 31, the reported 11374 confirmed cases, with 259 deaths. So, the death rate is about 2.2%, right? That's the number that I've been hearing, in reassuring tones. "Only 2%, and many are elderly, or have pre-existing conditions." The third number that they give us is "252", the number of confirmed cases that have recovered. So, a pessimist could point to that and say that only about 2% have recovered. In fact, it's just too soon to know the probabilities, because when an outbreak is growing this fast, you need to take into account the time lag from diagnosis to outcome. Looking back five days, we had 2019 cases. 259/2019 is about 13%. If it takes three weeks to recover, then the case count from three weeks ago is much smaller, so the odds of survival are much better. But there's just so much not known yet.

As you might have guessed from the notes above, I'm keeping a diary of coronavirus events as I see them. It might come in handy for next time, when we want to look back and see what we can learn from real-time impressions of an evolving situation. Who told us the truth? Who misinformed us? What actions proved valuable, and what was wasteful?

I'm currently reading The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History by John M. Barry

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/29036.The_Great_Influenza

Even though it's about the Influenza pandemic in 1918, its first 90 pages covers the scientific revolution in medicine that began in Europe around 1870 and the founding of Johns Hopkins which brought America out of the Dark Ages of medical diagnosis and treatment. And the next 50 or 60 pages is a fascinating (I think) study of how viruses function, mutate, and spread. Influenza, the corona viruses, and HIV viruses are different, of course, but the mechanisms are similar. From an Green Wizards stand point it's important to understand how viruses jump between animal species. Influenza is endemic to water fowl IIRC and ordinary doesn't jump from avian birds to humans. It can, however, jump to chickens and swine and then move from domestic farm animals to humans. HIV, Ebola, and this corona virus move apparently move through some kind of "bush meat." And we think, oh, if those low-life foreigners weren't eating all that weird, nasty meat they wouldn't be getting sick! But bird flu and swine flu have resulted in the slaughter of millions of domestic food animals! A small rural hospitals close and the distance between doctors stretches, I think it's important to understand how viruses function.

David Trammel's picture

Clare, if you click "Add A Reply" under the first post, it will put your post at the bottom of the list, just under the last post like this.

It can be deceptive with the set back because of the size of your avatar photo though.

David Trammel's picture

Lots of talk about buying food and stocking up. Here’s one suggestion I don’t see, pay your rent and utilities one month in advance.

I try to keep at least my utilities paid one month in advance, with rent being sometimes done. I’ve been lax about the rent this year. It comes in handy when you have an emergency. Two years back, I broke a wrist. Wasn’t able to work for 6 weeks. I’d just had to pay for some car repairs and my emergency cash fund was light. Didn’t have to worry about the landlord knocking on my door. I also had about a month of food in the cabinets, as usual. Only had to go out for beer, lol.

If the virus only ends up being a double the flu like disruption, your landlord may still hound you if you don’t make your rent. Be bad to have the sheriff show up trying to evict you, and you’re family is sick. You can cut back on your food if need be, but can’t do without shelter.

David Trammel's picture

There has been a lot of articles posted in the main stream media, as well as comments in videos and forum posts that are along the lines of "But the everyday flu is much worse / kills more people, so we shouldn't be worried about the Corona virus."

This argument is very deceptive, and imo doesn't address the actual facts.

Yes, the flu infects and kills a much greater number of people in total, than what is being reports for the Corona virus if you believe the numbers coming out of China are accurate. There is evidence that the actual numbers maybe several larger. Still in total, there are less people having been killed than the flu this season.

Where the argument is deceptive is first, the total number of people who are infected with the flu. According to the CDC they estimates that influenza (the flu) for 2019 has resulted in between 19 million – 26 million illnesses, between 180,000 – 310,000 hospitalizations and between 10,000 – 25,000 deaths.

Current deaths from nCov are estimated at 440.

Big difference, yes?

Here's why those numbers don't address the facts. The Corona virus has been active for about 2-3 months, in a relatively small region. CDC Flu statistics count the entire United States. Now that means comparisons are not possible yet for overall severity based sheerly on overall fatalities.

What can be compared, and what makes nCov scary are these numbers:

R0 numbers (basically how many people each infected person infects themselves)
Flu - 1.28
nCov - 2.5 to 3, with a recent study estimating it as high as 4.8

Serious Complication Rate (requires an ICU bed or extensive medical intervention)
Flu - 1%
nCov - estimated at 20%

Case Fatality Rate
Flu - 0.1%
nCov - 3.0%

If you do the comparison, with 19 - 25 million illnesses, nCov could kill 570 - 750 thousand individuals, with an estimated 3.8 - 5 million people needing serious medical intervention or a ICU bed.

This would overwhelm our medical resources and up the death rate. That is why the argument that the flu is worse than the Corona virus is not valid.

Now the statistics may well go down once we have accurate numbers from the rest of the World. There is a recent study that finds nCov attaches itself to a cellular receptor that is 5 times more common in Asian men. Which may have made the outbreak particularly bad in China. Details are sketchy.

The fatality numbers may well go up too as nCov infects Africa, which has a large number of Chinese immigrant workers and has very poor medical infrastructure.

Time to panic, no. Time to be concerned, yes. Make decisions based on the facts.

alice's picture

Good points, I had not thought about forward paying utilities etc but makes a lot of sense.

Thanks for passing on the hypothesis about a cellular receptor more common in Asian men. These population variation things can make a lot of difference. I remember there is something like that with the HIV virus too, if I remember right it's thought the virus attaches to something on the cell membrane that the Black Death vector also used and therefore infection rates much less than was expected amongst European origin folks whose ancestors must have survived the Black Death.

Those R0 numbers are definitely something to be aware of. Yes, nothing reported yet in Africa though I see a case in Tenerife on the nCov dashboard at arcgis, thanks for posting that link Blueberry as it's a great resource to make sense of the location of cases.

I think as numbers recovered/(total either recovered or died) on that dashboard are still only approaching 33 % ish today it's definitely a very serious disease.

Blueberry's picture

I have no desire to be a lab rat to see if my Delta 33 gene does the trick!!! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCR5 more info https://creation.com/ccr5delta32-a-very-beneficial-mutation Last link enjoy!!!!! https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland-s-provisional-dna-1.649672

alice's picture

Hilarious that last one, thanks for posting Blueberry. I concur about not wanting to see the experiment. I guess we just have to wait and see and pray a lot to our respective deities.

alice's picture

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/wuhan-coronavirus-safety-china/

"I rarely wear a face mask in an epidemic, and I have been in more than 30 outbreaks. Instead, I stay away from crowds, and I keep my distance from individual people—a half meter, about 1.5 feet, is a good standard. If someone is coughing or sneezing, I ask them to put on a mask—to protect me from their potentially contaminated fluids. If they decline, I step a meter (about 3 feet) away from them, or I leave. Don’t shake hands or hug people—politely beg off, saying it’s better for both of you not to come in close contact during an epidemic."

Includes a 10 point advice list, by Laurie Garrett, a former senior fellow for global health at the independent thinktank Council on Foreign Relations.

ClareBroommaker's picture

Wonder if someone could post the bolded version of points 8,9, & 10 here. I cannot get them to load.

As a USAmerican I have to smile at hearing that keeping one's distance consists of standing a foot and a half away and that backing away from coughing people consists of moving one meter away. I more likely consider myself to be rudely in someone's personal space when I'm a foot and a half away. If I'm in a store and someone coughs half an aisle length away, I'm likely to leaves the aisle all together. Closer than that will trigger me holding my breath until I can get out of the cough aerosol zone.

Last year during flu season I did keep my winter gloves on when shopping. Have not doe so this year.

Kid I tutor has a mother who is a virologist. I will certainly pay attention to what she does, especially for her children. So far, nothing special that I can tell.

mountainmoma's picture

8. Absolutely do not buy, slaughter, or consume any live animal or fish until it is known what species was the source of the virus.

9. When the weather allows, open your windows at home or work, letting your space air out. The virus cannot linger in a well-ventilated space. But of course, if it is cold or the weather is inclement, keep warm and close those windows.

10. Finally, if you are caring for a friend or family member who is running a fever, always wear a tight-fitting mask when you are near them, and place one on the ailing person (unless they are nauseated). When you replace an old, dirty mask from the face of your friend or loved one be very, very careful—assume, for the sake of your protection, that it is covered in viruses, and handle it while wearing latex gloves, place it inside of a disposable container, seal it, and then put it in the trash. While wearing those latex gloves, gently wash the patient’s face with warm soap and water, using a disposable paper towel or cotton swab, and seal it after use in a container or plastic bag before placing it in your household trash. Wear long-sleeved shirts and clothing that covers your body when you are caring for your ailing friend or relative. Clean everything your patient wears or touches very thoroughly in hot soapy water, including sheets, towels, and utensils. If you have space, isolate the sick person in your household in a room, or a corner of a room, where they are comfortable, but separated from the rest of the household. If the weather is tolerable, open a window that is on the opposite side of the room, so that air gently blows past the patient’s face and then outdoors. Of course, don’t do this if it is very cold, as your friend or loved one will be made sicker if uncomfortably cold.

The Chinese government will take very drastic actions over the next few weeks, and this will be a time of hardship for the Chinese people. As the virus spreads in other countries, similarly draconian measures may be invoked to slow the epidemic. But with these simple precautions, if taken by everybody in your household, building, office, and school, you will dramatically reduce the spread of the virus and bring the outbreak to its knees.

Be safe. Do not panic. Take commonsense precautions. As frightening as this time is, you will get through it.

Laurie Garrett is a former senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Pulitzer Prize winning science writer.

David Trammel's picture

I did see one person today wearing a mask at the grocery store.

For people who are sneezing or coughing. They do a good job of containing your droplets from getting into the public air space. I've started carrying a couple of the real cheap disposable ones in my hoodie's inside pouch to pull out and offer to anyone I see who is coughing in public without wearing one. Not gonna go the whole shaming route.

LOL I also plan to give them one of my Green Wizards business cards. Never miss an opportunity to recruit.

alice's picture

Yes it's not that he doesn't use masks at all, rather just that he sees them as useful in the several different situations rather than as something for general use. Apologies if the quote I pulled gave the wrong impression.

David Trammel's picture

Sorry I've been a bit quiet, things have been progressing fast for those of us watching the shadows. I'll try and do a update this weekend. For now please check your food stores and prep and if you need something get out in the next couple of days to stock up. You might not have a chance in a week.

mountainmoma's picture

For example, they had canned soup a few days ago, and at a good price, but now are out.

Yes, if you havent got what you need, get it ( not too much, but what you need) now.

Many drug stores are emptying out, but dollar store may -- and that is may -- still have hand sanitizer, cleaning supplies, generic medicines. So, dont foget to look in places like that that you might not normally shop at

Visacost still has elderberry concentrate. They have a very good one, much stronger than many places, one bottle is about 2 weeks for one person. https://www.vitacost.com/vitacost-sambucus-elderberry-ultra-concentrated... My family has used this with good results in the past. But, it is a minimal herb for this new virus, good, needed, but not sufficient. I will post below on that

R0: How scientists quantify the intensity of an outbreak like coronavirus and its pandemic potential

Joseph Eisenberg
Professor and Chair of Epidemiology, University of Michigan

https://theconversation.com/r0-how-scientists-quantify-the-intensity-of-...?

"If you saw the 2011 movie 'Contagion,' about a worldwide pandemic of a new virus, then you’ve heard the term R0.

"Pronounced 'R naught,' this isn’t just jargon made up in Hollywood. It represents an important concept in epidemiology and is a crucial part of public health planning during an outbreak, like the current coronavirus epidemic spreading outward from China.

"Scientists use R0 – the reproduction number – to describe the intensity of an infectious disease outbreak. R0 estimates have been an important part of characterizing pandemics or large publicized outbreaks, including the 2003 SARS pandemic, the 2009 H1N1 Influenza pandemic and the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

"How much will a disease spread?

"The formal definition of a disease’s R0 is the number of cases, on average, an infected person will cause during their infectious period. "

So far this new coronavirus is a little more infectious than regular seasonal flu and a whole lot less infectious than measles.

And I don't think it's nearly as dangerous as typhoid.

"Decades neglecting an ancient disease has triggered a health emergency around the world"

Claas Kirchhelle
Research Associate, Oxford Martin School/ Wellcome Unit for the History of Medicine, University of Oxford

Samantha Vanderslott
Postdoctoral Researcher in Social Sciences, University of Oxford

"New extensively drug-resistant variants of an ancient and deadly disease – typhoid fever – are spreading across international borders. Cases have been reported in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Iraq, Guatemala, UK, US, and Germany, as well as more recently in Australia and Canada. In recent years, drug resistant and travel-associated typhoid variants have also been spreading through the African continent. Under-reporting and international surveillance gaps mean that drug-resistant typhoid is probably even more extensive than we think.

"Causing fever, headache, abdominal pain and constipation or diarrhoea, typhoid is a bacterial disease. Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi – the organism behind typhoid – kills up to one in five patients if left untreated. S. Typhi spreads from person to person in water and food, which have been contaminated by faeces. As a consequence, typhoid is often associated with inadequate sanitation and water systems, as well as with poor hygiene practices.

"The rapid rise of increasingly difficult to treat typhoid is a very worrying prospect. During an age of unparalleled international trade and travel, it is inevitable that any regional rise of antibiotic resistance will have global knock-on effects."

And like the infamous Typhoid Mary:
"This research soon showed that typhoid was far more complex than initially thought. Although its mode of transmission via water and contaminated food was becoming increasingly clear, it emerged that the bacterium could also be excreted by seemingly healthy people. So-called asymptomatic – or healthy – carriers have no symptoms but can still excrete S. Typhi through their faeces for years after the initial infection."

David Trammel's picture

I've been following the news on the Corona virus, or as its now been named Covid-2019, pretty intensively.

One of the Youtube channels that I've found informative is "Medcram".
https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos

His latest video discusses how important sleep is to the immune system and how the best preventative medicine for this virus, and any virus for that matter is sleep. Especially the first few hours of it. You should make sure you get at least 8 hours of sleep in your day.

Check the video out, it has a great explanation of how our immune system works.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8&t=620s

David Trammel's picture

Earlier information seemed to indicate that Asian men were especially susceptible to Covid-2019 due to increased amounts of ACE2 receptors in their lung cells. The virus seems to latch onto these cellar receptors to hijack your cells for reproduction and spread. The earlier study that indicated a higher level in Asian men has since come into question (due to small sample size).

What has been shown is that past lower lung damage makes you more likely to have a severe reaction from the virus and an elevated risk of pneumonia. Men in China smoke a lot, almost 50% of them do. Also air pollution levels are much higher than in the Western countries. Both of those can do long term damage to your lower lungs.

I do not know, but suspect that if you have had past cases of pneumonia, whether that causes damage?

This preference to infecting the lower lungs points to a diagnosing difference between Covid and typical colds and mild flu. Covid seems to begin with cough and fever once symptoms show, while colds typically start with running noses and sneezing. Something to be aware of if you begin to feel ill.

Very little evidence that Covid is in the general population yet here in America. If you feel sick, you most certainly have a cold or flu.

Sharon Astyk
February 9 at 4:24 PM ·

Not looking to freak people out, but since preparedness is what I do (or used to, anyhow) I did want to talk about the ways that Coronavirus could alter things if it is NOT effectively contained in China.

At this moment, honestly, China's level of containment is pretty impressive, and it is important. While I am certain the Chinese state is engaging in all sorts of human rights violations, in a sense the rest of the world is complicit in them - very few states are authoritarian enough to be able to shut down a virus rapidly at this stage. The fact that almost all cases are in China, and contained mostly to limited areas is hella impressive, even as it is also often appalling.

If and when coronavirus begins to spread substantively (something we probably won't know for weeks, there's a substantial lag time in the models) it is very UNLIKELY that the US, for example, would be able to contain it. Enacting the kind of travel and personal activity restrictions that China has would be much more difficult here. Independence and personal rights are the way to go most of the time, but they are a two-edged sword in a situation like this.

It is worth noting that you don't need a lot of cases of coronavirus to effectively shut things down. Vietnam closed its schools with fewer than a dozen cases. Hong Kong has cases in the double digits still, but shortages and bare supermarket shelves are already a problem. The actuality of the situation and the anxiety level are only tangentially related. And it works the other way around - the Chinese central government announced that it was expecting workers in other cities to return to work. Economic pressures can reduce other precautions as authorities weigh costs and benefits.

If I were a betting woman, my guess is that the global spread would really take off from Singapore, which yesterday announced its first "untraceable" case - ie, someone who go the disease ambiently, rather than by travelling to China or close contact with any known carrier. That's just a guess, but there are no travel restrictions from Singapore, and it is central hub.

A lot of people are circulating various pieces of internet wisdom designed to remind them that for most of the world Flu is a bigger risk than coronavirus at this point, and that's absolutely true, but a little misleading. Yes, you should worry more about flu than coronavirus for today. Yes you should get a flu shot. But it is a an apples and oranges comparison too. This year's flus have been circulating since October, the first cases of Coronavirus emerged in early-to-mid-December. A flu carrier on average will transmit flu to 2 other people, while coronavirus seems to be more like 4 - which is very high.

Annual influenza has a death rate of 0.1-0.2 % of infected individuals. Coronavirus has a death rate of about 2-3 % of infected individuals. Moreover, the death rate is higher in cities with very high rates of infection, suggesting that when the medical system is overwhelmed the rate could be greater. Another concern is that a recent study suggested that it is very hard to keep the disease from spreading within hospitals in ways we don't entirely understand - which is concerning for two reasons. First, if medical personnel are sickened, that affects the capacity of the system to care for everyone. Second, it means that people dealing with other medical concerns need to worry about transmission, and may delay or avoid medical treatment which ups the overall risks.

My guess is we'll know whether coronavirus is going to circulate globally by mid-April, but if it starts soon, it could be widespread before that. Or, it could end up being contained. No one is sure. Even if it does become endemic, it isn't likely to be an endless thing - most coronaviruses don't like warm humid weather. SARS and other similar viruses mostly petered out in early summer. The odds are good that we are talking about a limited period of time for this outbreak.

So what should you do? Well, not panic is the first thing. It isn't time to panic. Trust me, I'll tell you ;-). I can't give medical advice, but I can tell you what I think and what my family will do.

1. If you have medical care you've been putting off, get it done soon if you can. If you can't or don't want to, ask if you can wait a while, maybe to summer. Don't actually risk harm to yourself by doing this, though. Be smart.

2. I would recommend people give up optional international travel at this point. Stay off cruise ships and out of Disney and water parks in case of fecal-oral transmission (likely but not confirmed.) No one needs to go on a cruise. Plan local vacations and buy trip insurance.

3. Get a flu shot if you haven't, take a multivitamin, get some exercise and generally take care of your health. Wash hands a lot. It may not prevent coronavirus (except for the hand washing) but you'll be a lot happier if you aren't weakened by flu or other winter illness first.

4. Don't buy all the fucking masks. Seriously, the masks don't work that well anyway, even the good ones. They are best for people who are sick and don't want to transmit things to others. The masks lose efficacy quickly, and there's a shortage. So if you do buy some, buy only enough for you to wear in places where there's a real risk of exposure. Save them for others - no hoarding.

5. If coronavirus starts to spread and you have the option STAY HOME. Especially keep kids, who may be asymptomatic carriers home from venues with lots of older people. Visit the grandparents for passover and easter by skype, not in person. Not everyone can stay home, but if you can, help out by not putting others at risk.

6. If you have any power in this system, use it to help reduce transmission. If you are the boss, give your employees sick time and close down when it seems prudent. Pay them and help them out. If you are in charge of an organization, find ways to reduce social crowds while still keeping connected - teach your classes over the internet, let people call in to meetings, help people engaged in religious and community support from a distance. If you provide support for those who struggle, find ways to continue that support without risk - organize food pantry drop offs, or meal drop offs in safe ways. Leaders, teachers and community organizers should be planning NOW.

7. Support healthcare professionals in your community who will bear a heavy burden in a crisis. They may need meals, childcare, transportation, someone to give a hand if they are sleeping at the hospital or working double and triple shifts. Be a friend and bring coffee. Help them do their jobs.

8. If you have extra money, do some preparing - have extra food and supplies in case you are quarantined. But don't just buy for yourself - if you are fortunate enough to have extra, plan to share. Up your donations to local community organizations that serve the vulnerable so they have extra to give. Organize with your nieghbors now to plan for mutual support and to make sure everyone has what they need. Know your neighbors and be there for each other.

9. If you end up quarantined, life is likely to be more boring than scary. Make some plans for what to do. Learn a new thing. read a new book. Have some fun stuff to do with kids. Make sure you get outside for a bit every day.

10. Do not obsessively read all the news and work yourself into a total frenzy. It won't help. Trust me ;-). Honestly, we will probably all mostly die of something much more boring anyway, hopefully MUCH MUCH LATER ;-).

I'll have some more thoughts on planning later, but for the moment the main rule is use your brain, not your adrenal glands to prepare.

David Trammel's picture

On further consideration, I've decided to remove the political side of this discussion of Sharon's post, as well as the comments referring to it.

This may piss everyone off but in the spirit of Greer and peaceful co-existence, that is perhaps the best decision.

David Trammel's picture

I've been getting much of my news and information from Chris Martenson over on Peak Prosperity, and in the discussions I wrote up this tutorial on things I thought would help a person prepare.

Please note, the audience over there is a bit more of the prepper and survivalist crowd than here. Some of the suggestions are a bit more militant and gun friendly. I do think the general tone and slant of the article is well done.

Best guess from people who know a whole lot more than me, this crisis won't get particularly disruptive until mid-March.

Economic disruptions, since basically the World's second largest economy and the major manufacturer of way too much of everyone's stuff is closed down, will be severe.

---
Preparations By Categories:

Several of you have asked for suggestions and recommendations on what to buy to fill out your deep pantry and hopefully help get you though this crisis.

Rather than give a list of specific supplies for those of you new to preparing and stockpiling a deep pantry, I want to offer a list of supplies by categories, in the hopes this will make you think about your own personal situation and choose wisely, as well as see where you have overlooked a needed supply.

Very few of us can go out and spend thousands of dollars just before an emergency to create a deep pantry. That is why we recommend you do it in stages and over the course of months before a crisis hits. Unfortunately this isn’t the case now.

In this case, given the rapidly growing threat of a global pandemic, you will need to prioritize what you stockpile, and consider how quickly you can do it. Not all of us are in the same danger as others.

Pandemics go through a time progression which looks something like this:

1) Localized Outbreak:
2) Small Regional Spread
4) Large Regional Outbreak
4) Trans-Regional Spread
5) Mass Infections Across National Boundaries
6) Hot House State/Global Infection
7) Outbreak Burnout (either within regions or globally)
8) Post Outbreak Aftermath

9) Possible Second Wave – More Severe Than The First?

Each of these phases has preparation that you need to do, progressing and building on the ones before it.

They also are not universal. Not everyone is going to need to go completely bonkers yet stocking up.

The Large Regional outbreak in China, which is now progressing into a Trans-Regional Outbreak in the Asian Rim requires certain drastic preparations that for someone in the rural portions of the United States does not yet need. They can take their time and acquire supplies over a much longer prep time than someone in China right now.

And yet, China is the manufacturing center of the global economy. So someone in a phase that doesn’t need a measure of preparation later phases do, like that rural person, may still need to up their own preparation because resources are going to be scarce soon.

But you should remember, YOU HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE TIME TO GET READY.

Let’s look at some categories then.

1) Life Critical Medicines:
These are supplies you need to keep yourself alive normally, ignoring the current crisis. As Chris has pointed out, China is the World’s medicine chest. They supply raw materials and finished products which are rapidly running out. This will effect everyone.

Are you diabetic? Do you take medicines on a regular basis? Does any of your family take them? If so, then you need to schedule an appointment with your doctor or pharmacist and talk to them about prescribing a larger supply of your current medications. Also stockpile any equipment you need to give those meds, like syringes, or test strips.

Importantly, are you or your partner pregnant?

Giving birth in a pandemic can be particularly challenging. Consider how you might stockpile if you think you may have to do a home birth during a period of self quarantine. Rather than a hospital deliver, investigate midwife services. Consider birth control and stockpile for it. Its a given that any self quarantine may be boring, and people bored sometimes choose to entertain themselves in a more personal nature. Seek additional supplies of birth control pills or a supply of condoms.

Think not just about yourself but also any elderly family members who don’t live with you. You may decide to bring them into your home with you for protection. They may not see the current crisis as worrisome, and ignore or downplay the need to stockpile but you can always address it as a supply problem. Imports from China, including medicines are being impacted by their national quarantine. Important medications may not be there if they wait.

2) Children and Their Needs:
I’m not a parent, nor do I have children, so I’m going to offer this section from an outsider’s perspective.

Children and their needs depends a lot on their ages. Those who are pre-kindergarten, have different requirements from those who are in grade school, as do those from children in their teens.

While children, like any of us needs food, to me children in particular have a need for distraction. That is, they may have varying levels of understanding of the crisis and the reason they must stay inside and not go out. Entertainment and educational resources will go a long way to keeping young children happy and distracted.

Older children with an honest discussion between you and them can and will help out if given the opportunity, if you explain the importance to them. Consider devoting in the opening phases of your stockpiling, a portion to buy supplies that keep your children busy and entertained. Look to what books, games or DVDs you have on hand.

Don’t forget educational supplies. If conditions worsen schools will be one of the first things closed. Take some time to speak with your children’s teachers and ask them if there are plans to address school closures. I doubt there are but your questions may prompt teachers and school administrators to put plans in place.

Get a library card from your local public library. Most have online catalogs and allow you to request books that way. You can then walk straight in, pick up your requests and walk out with minimal exposure. This also allows for variety in your childrens’ entertainment and education.

3) Pets:
Don’t forget your non-human companions. Stockpile meds if needed. You might think that you could just give them table scraps in a dire situation, but their health will suffer. Look for pet food on discount if money is tight but be aware changing foods can cause diarrhea and digestion problems. Make food changes slowly. Pets can help tremendously in lowing stress and providing comfort. Don’t neglect their welfare.

Don’t have a pet? Consider volunteering at a nearby shelter. People will get sick and be unable to help out. Nothing more sad than to imagine animals slowly dieing for lack of food or water because no one is there. Consider being a foster too. Having a new animal in the house can provide distraction and help with boredom and stress. And as a foster, after the crisis passes, you can return the animal.

AND NO: Animals do not carry or transmit this virus, unless someone infected sneezes on their fur and you stick your face in it right afterwards.

4) Transportation:
Beginning tomorrow, fill you car’s gasoline tank at 3/4. Yes, that means you will be stopping to fill a lot. Get used to it.

Transportation is your lifeline to supplies and support. In a city wide lock down, there will be no ambulances, no mass transit. While I don’t expect electrical service will be disrupted beyond minor blackouts, remember both ATMs and gas pumps don’t work without electricity. If you have the money, consider stockpiling one tank’s worth of gasoline with your deep pantry. Remember you will need to use and rotate any stored fuel if kept more than a few months.

Consider too cooking fuels. You may at some point need to consider cooking on an alternative method that your normal one. A small barbecue with a bag of stored charcoal, or something bigger like a small camp stove with propane or liquid fuel may need to be factored into your prep.


5) Water and the Toilet:
Begin by putting a large plastic tote in the shower and fill it. This can provide a small source of usable water to flush with if needed and can be stepped around to take a shower. Be careful, falls and slips can injure you as easily as the virus can.

Remember, you have 20-30 gallons in your water heater, which you can access if you need to. Do a Youtube search and watch how to open and drain your water heater. In many cases domestic water heaters have a build up in mineral scalings, which may drain with the water. Best consider this a source of water for flushing your toilet and not for drinking.

If the water does temporally shut off, remember to conserve. Many people forget that, and flush as they would normally, wasting precious water. Put a bottle of common bleach in the bathroom. After you use the toilet, pour a small amount into the soiled water and only flush when waste becomes a problem. Just because it smells a little doesn’t mean it can’t sit for a bit.

Pick up a few bottles of toilet cleaner too, then before you go to bed, flush and pour some in the bowl to help sanitize and keep bacteria from growing.

Something else, buy lots of toilet paper. You can go hungry but if you can’t wipe your butt, you are not going to be happy. Stock up on feminine hygiene products too if needed.

Consider buying at least some sealed drinkable water containers. Humans need about a gallon a day, either through food, juices or water. Plan for that. Most grocery stores have fillable water jugs and it runs about $1 per gallon. Remember though, water is heavy. Don’t stack too much in one place in your home.

1 gallon milk jug size water containers, prefilled and sanitized are available at the grocery store. Personally I went a size larger. My store has 2 1/2 gallon prefilled containers, which each have a spout for use. I like them because they are not too heavy to carry and if needed can be traded or given to an off site family member or friend. At a minimum, I would stockpile 20 gallons a person.

If you have the money pick up one or two plastic 55 gallon drums and fill them with drinkable water. Remember water weighs about 9lbs per gallon, a 55 gallon drum weights around 450lbs. Put them in your basement, garage or where the weight won’t matter.


6) Heat, Cooling and Lighting:
For those of us in North America, we are headed out of the Winter. Heating except in an unexpected cold snap will be less of a problem, one that heavy blankets on the bed and a sweater worn inside may solve. For those of you in the South Hemisphere, you need to consider what the approaching Winter will do to your home and preparations, if power and fuel is interrupted. We can actually live in unheated environments, and our ancestors did so.

Same with cooling, though its likely that the Corona virus will decrease when warmer weathers become common.

For lighting in a electrical disruption, candles may seem romantic but there are many newer led camp lights which last a long time on batteries. Get one, and get at least one replacement of batteries. Get half a dozen small flashlights too. Put them at doors, bathroom especially and have everyone in the household keep one on their person.

Don’t forget getting some matches and a few lighters.

IMPORTANT: Buy a couple of fire extinguishers if you don’t have one. Put one in the kitchen and another next to each person’s bed. Talk about how you will exit the house in an emergency and where you will all meet up with your family.

Change the batteries in your smoke detectors this week. Stock up on replacement batteries for your common devices. Consider rechargeable batteries and a solar charger too.


7) Money and Capital Resources:
A lot of us have several credit cards, and they should be considered a usable resource if needed. Don’t hesitate to rack up some debt if you have to in this crisis. Just be wise about it, remember you are going to have to pay it back eventually.

Consider putting at least a few hundred dollars in cash at home, in small denomination bills. If you can, up that to $500 or more. While I doubt it might happen, a very serious crisis could cause bank runs or government interventions which make your savings and financial resources unreachable.

Its quite possible that during this crisis there will be computer disruptions and your cards, both credit and debit, may be declined. Have with you an amount of cash will allow you to buy needed supplies. An yet, be careful and don’t flash large amounts of easily stolen cash. Put a smaller amount ($20-30) in a pocket that you can access, and the rest safely hidden.

Also consider paying your utilities and monthly bills in advance at least one month. I’m not sure how this crisis will effect billing and such things. I would hope that services would make allowances for people in need but then they may not. More and more, computers are in charge of who gets their services turned off. Don’t let a illness put you in the dark or sends the sheriff to your door to evict you.

If you haven’t move yet, your 401K or other investments into cash options NOW. This crisis will probably bring on a recession and cause a serious correction in the Market. Don’t survive and end up poor because you were focused on the real world and ignored the financial one.

8) Security and Protection:
If you own a firearm, check it, clean it and put it somewhere you can get at it. If you don’t own one, consider putting some sort of protection where its handy. Also have something with you if you go out.

I remember when I worked as a security guard in college, the police instructor who trained us said this, that carrying a billy club was illegal, but one of the longer and heavy flashlights wasn’t. If we had to use that for protection then it was ok. Likewise, I have in my car as 4 way tire iron, for changing tires. I also have a hollow steel pipe which fits over one arm of that, to provide leverage to unstick frozen wheel nuts. That four foot pipe can be just as easily used to defend myself.

If your family members are uneasy with firearms, then consider non lethal means like pepper spray. Hang one or two on the back of any entrance door so that if there is someone trying to force their way into your home, its handy. Put a baseball bat at the door too.

Don’t forget your car either. Put a can of pepper spray inside where each occupant can use it thru the window if need be.

No, I don’t think we will see roving bands of MadMaxian thieves assaulting our homes. And yet, in many Third World countries you can be attacked and robbed in the few feet from your car to your front door. Become situational aware. Watch your environment. Crises like these bring out the best in people but also bring out the worst.


9) Virus Related Medicinals:

We covered life critical medicines in section one. A second section must be those medicinals related to the crisis.

You may not be able to cure the underlying illness but often being able to handle the symptoms can go a long way to keeping you alive. Look at the symptoms that this virus has, cough, fever, diarrhea and find over the counter medicines to address each of them. Stock up, its going to be rough. Don’t forget simply instruments. A good thermometer and oximeter can tell you when its time to brave the line at the local hospital or end up dead.

Buy some comfort foods for the sick, like frozen popsicles or ice cream. This virus causes sore throats and coughs. Being able to just sit and eat something cold and tasty will go a long way to making the ill comfortable.

Attitude is going to be critical in recovering from this virus.

Consider your self quarantine measures as well. One of your household is certainly going to be sick. Your job is to see that all of you don’t. Personal protection equipment (PPE) to prevent the virus from spreading inside your home and to protect you when you have to go out for supplies, is critical. Buy what you can but don’t hoard. Others out there will need supplies too. Read up here on how you can extend the life of your PPE and masks. Protect yourself and don’t put yourself and your family at risk if you can help it.

Don’t over look less traditional medicinals, like herbals and supplements. You need to strengthen your bodies immune system and stay healthy and well. Read where you can. Knowledge is your friend.

Also don’t over look the way that a good 8 hours of sleep can increase your resistance to infection and boost your immune system.

Dr Seheult on the Medcram Youtube channel has a host of good detailed and informative videos that compliment Chris’s here on Peak Prosperity. He has a series on how sleep helps too.

Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlbM6VVkVZM&t=1s

Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE4pBkslqS4

10) Food:
I put food at the end of this list because it is often the first thing people think of when they begin to prepare and it is probably one of the least important things to stockpile. I know most people will take issue with this, but its true. You can survive a long while on little food. You can’t if you are diabetic and don’t have insulin.

Food is important but you must approach it with some smarts. Food is a supply you can easy go overboard on and waste your money.

Lets consider some key points to outfitting your deep pantry with food.

10a) Buy what You Eat:
Too many new people to stockpiling will see the ads for survival food and buy into a bulk purchase of foods which do provide the needed nutrition but which are completely useless as additions to their deep pantries.

Simply this, if you don’t eat rice or beans on a regular basis, buying 20 pounds of either as a basis for your deep pantry is wrong. Either of those staples may keep you alive, but you aren’t going to enjoy it.

Purchase the food which you eat in your pre-crisis life. Deep pantries aren’t something you buy and then store in the basement never to touch unless it gets bad. Deep pantries are really just buying your normal groceries that you eat from day to day, but buying them a few months out. One hint, as you buy stuff and build up your deep pantry, date each item with a magic marker, then try and choose the oldest food item in the pantry when you need to eat.

That also means deep pantries aren’t static. You need to set up a schedule of weekly menus so that you don’t end up with supplies that are years old. Second hint, buy and put up a small white board in your kitchen, both to plan a menu and to remind yourself of any needed additions.

This virus outbreak isn’t going to cut off our access to food. Some things may get out of stock. There may be food runs too, where local stores empty out. You though, know enough to plan ahead and not let panic dictate your actions.

10b) Consider How Its Stored:
Most of your deep pantry will need to be stored for a while, at least weeks if not months. When you purchase and fill out your deep pantry, be aware of that fact.

The majority of the food you buy will be in cans or packaging which allows room temperature, dry storage. If its one thing modern grocers have perfected, its making food that lasts. That’s good.

Some things may require electrical cold storage. I own a 7 cubic foot freezer and its almost always filled to the top. If power goes out though, that food will quickly turn to unusable garbage unless I cook it and eat it. Electrical cold storage though is very useful and as I’ve pointed out, at least in the US, during this crisis, electrical supplies of power should be constant.

Try though to buy those foods that store at room temperature.

10c) Plan For Foods While You Are Sick:

A portion of your food prep should be foods that are easy to make (think 2 minutes in the microway), can be eaten cold (most soups or canned meat), or are nutritious and easily digested (think teas, broths, juices). Don’t forget electrolyte replenishers like Gatoraid.

Diarrhea can be a symptom of this virus, which will deplete important minerals, salts and sugars from your body. If we can’t cure the virus, then we have to survive the symptoms.

10d) Buy A Few Comfort Foods:
Nothing cuts stress like a couple of cookies.

Its tempting when you first outfit a deep pantry to focus just on the basics and the core supplies. That is a mistake. We aren’t just animals eating that which we need. We are emotional beings that sometimes just want to have a hot cup of coffee and some chocolate. Remember that when things are hard, its helpful to be able to step back, recenter our thoughts and let the stress go for a moment, before getting back into the fight is critical to your survival.

10e) Start Growing Something:

Even if its just a few sprouts. Or a bucket of microgreens. Start now to gain at least a small amount of control on where your food comes from.

You can check out this tutorial on the forum here on how to make a low cost ($10) self watering planter for patios or balconies.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/self-watering-garden-containers/

Growing some of your own food is also a great way to keep children focused and entertained. The act of caring for a plant and watching it grow, to then harvest from it and see it on the table is a powerful way to help your children through this trying event.

Optional: 11) Things That You Can Trade:
Unfortunately, for every one of you reading Peak Prosperity and preparing for an emergency, there are 99 who don’t. Some of them may be your friends and neighbors.

Think about what you can spare and where you need to say no. And what you might have extra in the case you have forgotten something, or need more of an important supply, like medicines, that you can use in trade. Be careful to only trade with people you know and then to guard yourself. Never let on that you are a juicy target that someone desperate might want to rob. Trade small and walk away.

Note on where to get supplies: Don’t over look non-conventional sources. Its natural to think grocery stores or big box retailers, but places which sell to retailers and businesses often have a larger supply of goods, and a lower price. I recently stopped by a restaurant supplier looking for a 55 gallon drum. They didn’t have them but they had a box of rubber gloves which I had just paid $9 at a hardware store for $5. And they had another 50 boxes of those gloves on the shelf. Think outside of the box.

Ok, that’s some thoughts and suggestions.

I suspect I’m missing a whole lot of things but at least it gets you thinking. Remember, developing a deep pantry and preparing for hard times isn’t just going out and buying a whole lot of canned food.

For every dollar you have to supply a deep pantry, unfortunately you are going to have 3-4 things that you think you need to buy. Take your time, think though your options and even if you later think you chose wrong, don’t worry about it too much. You will make mistakes. This isn’t a situation with right or wrong but a situation where you can only choose what is best for you.

Be safe.

mountainmoma's picture

generally, when we are sick, we dont do the fully balanced electrolytes as it isnt needed, so I might give the sick person a broth, which has miso or salt ( so the sodium part). At another time, I will give them watered down apple juice, or chamomile tea with a bit of sugar. If they can eat, a bit of applesauce ( so, sugars) Those are the main 2, at first, salt and sugar of some form to keeps your electrolytes balanced.

But, if the person has alot of diarrhea or throwing up for too long and you are more worried about electrolytes, here is the recipe for homemade. The difference here is that besides sodium, you also need pottasium. Fruits have some pottasium, which is why just a bit of fruit juice, banana or applesauce in a regular illness is often enough.

You need to go buy Salt substitute, which is pottasium chloride

from another site:

" From Doc Bones book:

Oral Rehydration Solution
1 liter water
6-8 level tsp sugar
1/2 tsp salt
1/4 tsp salt substitute (potassium chloride)
A pinch of baking soda

Double the amount of water for use in children

I would personally add that you can put a little kool aid powder in there for flavor "

ClareBroommaker's picture

My friend was living in a homeless shelter with her 4 month old who got diarrhea. She had recently read "Where There Is No Doctor" which was kept on the shelf at the shelter, so used their kitchen supplies to make a rehydration solution, in lieu of Pedialyte. Soon after, she was able to take the baby to a doctor. She told the doctor what she had done and the doctor laughed with good-natured approval.

I think Where There Is No Doctor is still available free online, as well as for sale. It's great.

In our kitchen I keep a 3 ounce can of potassium chloride (Nu-Salt brand salt substitute). Rubber-banded to it is this recipe: 1/2 tsp salt, 2 TBS sugar, 1 liter water, 1/2 tsp KCl. If I had kids, I would go ahead and measure our the dry ingredients for several batches into old pill bottles or paper packets to have it ready to go should someone need it. The baking soda that your recipe above includes would be good if there is diarrhea.

mountainmoma's picture

I have where there is no doctor on my shelf also, next to the vintage red cross home nursing books. I own an Anthroposophical Childrens Health book which is good for how to treat illnesses, but it is now on long term loan to my offspring for use with the grandkids

mountainmoma's picture

I have lyme disease, late stage, and a few years found out about the Buhner protocol of herbs to treat. ( Stephen Harrod Buhner) Now, I have nothing against antibiotics, and took them for many years, and they did alot of good. But, I was stuck and still not all the way well. His herbal protocol has had great effects, I am still on it, as I had to stop too early, I just restarted last month ( and finally this week am starting to feel better, not done, but it is improving as I saw before I had to prematurely stop) The point of my saying this is that I realy trust this herbalist and author. He is well known and respected in the herbalist community. So much so, that many, many practictioners have patients follow his protocols and many, many herbal makers and sellers sell sets of tinctures and capsules based on his recommendations ( he does not sell herbs himself).

I have his Herbal AntiVirals book and it is very good. ( as well as his Treating Lyme Disease book, get the second edition of the lyme book, it is much changed and improved from the first edition) So, the Herbal Antiviral book has alot of other good information, obiously, much more than his short facebook post, so a worthwhile book, but still, at least his facebook post has the basics

He was generous enough to put his protocol for Corona Virus on his facebook page https://www.facebook.com/stephen.buhner :

" .... Stephen Buhner
January 23 at 10:37 AM ·

Corona virus treatment. I have an analysis of how corona viruses infect tissues, what tissues they infect, and the herbs that are useful to interrupt that process, as well as the herbs useful to shut down the cytokine cascade they create on pages 52-55 of Herbal Antivirals. It is useful reading in that it can inform treatment from a knowledgeable place (there are also some suggestions, not often used by medical professionals, for specific pharmaceuticals that have been found to be useful). Here is a sample protocol. Please note it is rather more extensive than the ones i normally suggest, this is because the particular corona virus that is now spreading world wide is exceptionally potent in its impacts. Again, this is only a suggested protocol, but all the herbs are specific in one way or another for this virus. A number of the herbs are strongly antiviral for corona viruses. In general, I would only begin using these formulations IF there is good reason to believe that the virus is entering your area. The formulations are preventative as well as specific for acute infections, the only alteration is the dosage. Three tincture formulations and one tea.

Core tincture formulation: Baikal skullcap (3 parts), japanese knotweed root (2 parts), kudzu (2 parts), licorice (1 part), decocted elder leaf tincture (1 part). Note, the berry will do i guess but it is about 1/3 as effective as the decocted leaf (which no one sells, you have to make it yourself). Dosage: 1 tsp 3x day, 6x if active infection.

Immune system, cellular protection, cytokine interruption tincture formulation, supportive for core tincture activity: Cordyceps (3 parts), Dong Quai (2 parts), rhodiola (1 part), astragalus (1 part). Dosage: same as above.

Cellular protection, cytokine interruption, spleen/lymph support tincture formulation: Dan Shen (3 parts), red root (2 parts), cinnamon (1 part). same dosage as above.

With active infection: very strong boneset tea, to 6x day.

I have used this with other corona virus infections, including SARS, it works well. ..."

Many of these herbs overlap with what I am already taking for Lyme, so I am actually pretty well protected. But, my daughter is at University and has just developed some kind of bad Lung or asthma thing, so she is vulnerable. I bought, from one of the herbal sellers, a 2 week set of tinctures for this Corona Virus protocol. She still thinks this is all too much fuss for nothing, but I have these ready to send to her once this epidemic worsens, or within the next few weeks. For those out of the USA he mentions a place in the UK and one in Canada for those that want a done set of herbs.

If you have a very big family, make them yourself. But, do note, that some of the herbs are grown in .... China. So, dont wait too long. Japanese knotweed, of course, grows as an invasive now in many places, including the southern part of the USA, so that Kudzu, licorice, and elder certainly can be found ! Cordeceps and red root are also domestic. ( I already take cordeceps, licorice, japanese knotweed, dan shen. I have elderberry extract here, so not perfect but very protective in the overlap. I bought some dried boneset for tea and need to buy some kudzu )

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